Advanced Modeling and Verification for High Penetration PV

Summary

This project will develop several different tools and products that will help utilities address issues related to integrating high penetration PV into the electric grid. Specifically, the project addresses the following issues identified in the Planning & Modeling for High-Penetration PV target area: Improved Online Solar Radiation Datasets, PV Model Validation, High Penetration PV T&D Model Integration, and Optimal Location Selection.

This project will accomplish the following specific tasks:

• Enhance the spatial and temporal resolution of SolarAnywhere, the online satellite-based irradiance dataset. This will enable use of these high temporal and spatial resolution data in the various forcasting and planning tools needed to enable high penetration of solar.
• Extend the capabilities of PVSimulator to include output variability and validate PV performance forecasts using two existing circuits with a PV high-penetration in California. This will enable better forecasting in planning tools used by utilities.
• Integrate PV modeling capabilities with the Distribution Engineering Workstation distribution engineering and analysis tool. This will allow system planners to model the effects of cloud transients, bi-directional load flows, and the attributes of today's advanced inverter technologies.
• Create a PV value assessment tool that takes technical inputs from the distribution planning process and calculates the economic value of a specific PV fleet configuration. This will enable the distribution planner to optimize the tradeoffs and identify the optimal locations, of PV systems.

The tools and data streams developed as part of this work will be made available for public use by California installers, manufacturers, agencies, utilities, and others. It will help those engaged in the transformation of the electric power grid into a clean energy marketplace.

Status

Project Documents/Website Links

• SolarAnywhere - Data for 2003-2011 in select areas of California will be made freely available through this grant funding (work in progress)
• Project presentation PDF (1.14 MB)
• Paper and presentation (1.3 MB) on PV Power Output Variability
• California high resolution solar data http://ca.solaranywhere.com (1 km grid 30 min interval)

Pending Patents

• Computer-Implemented System and Method for Estimating Power Data for a Photovoltaic Power Generation Fleet.

• Computer-Implemented System and Method for Determining Point-to-Point Correlation of Sky Clearness for Photovoltaic Power Generation Fleet Output Estimation.

• Computer-Implemented System and Method for Efficiently Performing Area-to-Point Conversion of Satellite Imagery for Photovoltaic Power Generation Fleet Output Estimation.

Journal Articles

• “Quantifying PV Power Output Variability,” Solar Energy, Volume 84, Issue 10, October 2010, Pages 1782-1793. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X10002380.
• “Modeling PV Fleet Output Variability,” Solar Energy, Forthcoming. Draft available at http://www.cleanpower.com/Content/Documents/research/capacityvaluation/Modeling%20PV%20Fleet%20Output%20Variability.pdf.
• “Parameterization of Site-specific Short-term Irradiance Variability,” Solar Energy, Volume 85, Issue 7, July 2011, Pages 1343-1353, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X11000995.
• “Short-term Solar Irradiance Variability – Spatial and Temporal Characteristics,” Solar Energy, Submitted. Draft available at http://www.cleanpower.com/Content/Documents/research/capacityvaluation/Short-term%20irradiance%20variability%20-%20Station%20pair%20correlation%20as%20a%20function%20of%20distance.pdf.
• “Solar Resource Variability: Myth and Fact,” Solar Today, August/September 2011. http://www.solartoday-digital.org/solartoday/20110910#pg48.
• “Solar Power Generation in the US: Too Expensive or a Bargain?” Accepted to Energy Policy, Forthcoming. Draft available at http://www.cleanpower.com/Content/Documents/research/capacityvaluation/Solar%20Power%20Generation%20in%20the%20US%20-%20Too%20Expensive%20or%20a%20Bargain.pdf.

Conference Presentations

• “Short-Term Irradiance Variability: Station Pair Correlation as a Function of Distance,” ASES National Conference, Raleigh, NC, 2011. Draft available at http://www.asrc.cestm.albany.edu/perez/2011/short.pdf.
• “PV Power Output Variability: Calculation of Correlation Coefficients Using Satellite Insolation Data,” ASES National Conference, Raleigh, NC, 2011. Draft available at http://www.cleanpower.com/Content/Documents/research/capacityvaluation/SOLAR2011_36.pdf.
• “High Solar Penetration: Challenges on Day-Ahead and Multi-Day Forecasts,” AMS Summer Community Meeting, August 2011.
• “The Convergence of Distributed PV, Smart Grid & Storage,” SEPA Utility Solar Conference, August 2011, Available at http://sepa.confex.com/sepa/2011usc/webprogram/Session1092.html.

Webinars

• PV output variability, the sheep in wolf’s clothing,” VoteSolar, March 2011. Recording available at http://votesolar.org/tag/solar-output/.
• Solar PV Variability and Distribution Feeder Performance, EPRI, March 2011
• Solar Forecasting: Modeling, Verification and High Penetration PV, SEPA, August 2011. Recording available at http://www.solarelectricpower.org/resources/multimedia-library.aspx?kw=sepa%20seminar.

Solar Data

• Provided detailed data to CAISO for inclusion in 33% renewables case study. Summary of Preliminary Results of 33% Renewable Integration Study – 2010 CPUC LTPP Docket No. R.10‐05‐006. Report available at http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/E2FBD08E-727B-4E84-BD98-7561A5D45743/0/LTPP_33pct_initial_results_042911_final.pdf. Page 87.
• Partial validation of SolarAnywhere 2009 by UCSD. Available at http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/highpen2wkshp_05intro_jkleissl_forecasting_110613.pdf, page 10.
• SolarAnywhere Enhanced Resolution (1 km x 1 km, half-hour) freely available to general public at www.solaranywhere.com.

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